VMI valuation model

Valuation first. Signal second.

Review whether a stock is trading below or above your estimated intrinsic value before checking technical strategy signals.

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Apple Inc.

NASDAQ: AAPL · Consumer Electronics · Updated 26 Apr 2026

Undervalued
Estimated intrinsic value$184.20

Based on VMI cash flow, growth, debt, cash and discount-rate assumptions.

Market Price$162.80
Upside+13.1%
SignalWatch

Valuation zone

The marker shows where current price sits compared with estimated intrinsic value.

CheapFairExpensive
Decision: Add to watchlist

Valuation is attractive, but technical confirmation is still required before entry.

VMI verdict

Decision support
Price is below intrinsic value

The model estimates a moderate discount versus fair value, creating room for further review.

⚠️
Margin of safety is not huge

This is not a deep-value setup. A stronger discount would give better downside protection.

📈
Next step: check strategy signal

Use the backtest page to confirm whether the selected strategy currently supports an entry.

Operating Cash Flow$118.2B

Primary cash flow input for valuation.

Free Cash Flow$105.4B

Used as secondary valuation reference.

Discount Rate9.2%

Risk-adjusted rate applied to future value.

ConfidenceMedium

Valuation depends heavily on growth assumptions.

Model assumptions

Base case
InputValueComment
Growth rate years 1–58.5%Near-term growth estimate
Growth rate years 6–106.0%Gradual slowdown
Growth rate years 11–203.0%Mature business assumption
Total debt per share$6.16Deducted from valuation
Cash per share$4.56Added back to valuation

Scenario range

Sensitivity view
Bear case

$142

Lower growth and higher discount rate. Current price may be expensive.

Base case

$184

Balanced estimate using current VMI model assumptions.

Bull case

$226

Higher growth and stronger cash flow durability.

Valuation breakdown

Per share
ComponentValueImpact
PV of future cash flow$185.80Core value
Less debt per share-$6.16Reduces value
Add cash per share+$4.56Adds value
Final intrinsic value$184.20Base estimate

What this means

Plain English
🦊
VMI says the stock is worth watching

The price is below the model estimate, but not cheap enough to blindly buy.

🧪
Backtest before action

Move to the backtest page to check whether your chosen strategy has a valid entry signal.

🛡️
Protect against overconfidence

Valuation is an estimate, not a guarantee. Treat the result as a filter, not a prediction.